The Evolution of an Argument

Perhaps a misleading title, but it remains more succinct than its competitor, ‘The remoulding of a hodge-podge of I-don’t-know-whats' as a way of describing the Clinton campaign's shifting tactics and reason for being.

In 2007 Hillary Clinton was seen as the inevitable candidate for the Democratic Presidential nominee. Throughout this year her fundraising amazed, her machine impressed, and she presented as a less polarising figure than she had previously. She accepted DNC rules, made a pledge for a clean campaign, and even found cause to claim that any one of her, Barack Obama or John Edwards would be a worthy Democratic nominee.

She had a slight blip with a third place at the first contest in Iowa, but got back on board with a win in New Hampshire. After these contests the outsider candidates quickly dropped off the pack, and then, on 30 January when John Edwards left, Hillary Clinton had a lone rival. She was still expected to romp home, blasting Obama away on Super Tuesday with her advanced organisation and contacts, before coasting with the momentum befitting a President in waiting. But it didn’t quite turn out like that. Not only did Clinton not finish Obama off on Super Tuesday, she actually lost the vote and delegate count to him that day. She was officially behind in pledged delegates, and her overall lead remained only due to her ability to aggressively sign up superdelegates before the nominating process had really gotten going.

Clinton was no longer inevitable, and the campaign wasn't happy. They needed another yardstick with which to position their candidate. So we heard from various sources that the fact that superdelegates favoured her should be the main factor under consideration. Those in the know knew that she was the powerful and worthy candidate, able to beat the Republicans in November, and they were making their voices heard. But unfortunately, that one did last. Supers began to flood to Obama as he won contest after contest, and Clinton's lead in this category went from commanding to shaky. At the time of writing, the super count was 246 to 213 in Clinton’s favour, down from a lead of over one-hundred on Super Tuesday, and narrowing fast. Further, the only sub-grouping still favouring Clinton overall were DNC appointees – that is non-elected figures – with House members, Senators, Governors and all people answerable to the public moving to Obama. When these numbers tightened, Clinton needed to change tack.

So then we heard that in fact the popular vote was what counted. Florida and Michigan needed to be reinstated now (and counted for Hillary) even though Obama was not on the ballot in Michigan, and was at an obvious disadvantage as the unknown candidate in Florida given the no campaigning pledge – a pledge which Hillary’s ‘victory’ ceremony and presence in the State on the day of the vote came close to breaking. Obama was being anti-democratic, we heard, in not abiding by Hillary’s opportunistic change of heart, and this was proof that he was not ready. The people would not accept this! But unfortunately, a bit of number crunching showed Obama still leading by at least 100,000 votes even with the worst case scenario of Clintonite gerrymandering factored in. The team would need something else.

So we heard that Clinton is the only one that can win the big states! California, New York…but then it was pointed out that these states were solidly blue and could be counted in the Democratic column no matter who was the nominee. Well what about white, working-class states?...but then Obama contested one vigorously and won Wisconsin. But what about the Hispanic vote and Texas!...but then Obama picked up the endorsements of Bill Richardson, Ted Kennedy, and contrary to misguided reporting, won the vote and the delegate count in Texas. This one didn’t fly.

Then we had the ‘electoral-math’ argument. Evan Bayh and other Clinton supporters argued that if you look at the states where Clinton will win in November, it is clear she will win the election. Whereas if you look at the states that Obama will win, it is clear that he won’t. I can only hope that the humour of making an electability argument, whilst losing an election, was not lost on the team behind this one. ‘Cos it’s worth a chuckle. When Clinton's approval ratings and poll numbers dived further, this argument sank along with them.

And all the while in the background we have seen underhanded attempts to weaken Clinton's opponents (who, according to her campaign, seem to be Obama and the Democratic Party). We have had racial sniping going on - Bill Clinton sent a couple of shots across the bow with his ‘fairytale’ and ‘Jesse Jackson’ comments, dismissing Obama’s run as a marginal exercise, and Geraldine Ferraro told us how lucky Obama was to be a black man in the U.S. Clinton and Harold Ickes whispered in private, to superdelegates, that the Republicans just won’t let the race thing go (with straight faces no less) so she remained, they argued, the obvious choice. The fact that Obama has won the states with the higest percentage of white voters, as well as the highest percentage of black voters has not been able to intrude on this false reality or the gutter tactics employed. Then there were statements about the worthiness of John 'ready to be Commander in Chief' McCain as opposed to the neophyte Obama, rearguard actions directed at the party - from threats made to Howard Dean and Nancy Pelosi, to offensive slurs at Bill Richardson, there have been lies uncovered and dismissed (where to start with that one), and ‘misreadings’ (to go with the ‘misspeaking’ no doubt) of the meaning of pledged delegates (yes they really are 'pledged').

And now Clinton's money has run out, her campaign is being run by buffoons like Mark Penn, and the circle of argument is about to close - we are back onto superdelegates. Clinton must know she has lost the delegate race and popular vote, and, even with a losing campaign distinguished by its schmuckery, she seems to believe that the remaining superdelegates are going to overwhelmingly lock in behind her because she is the superior candidate.

Ain’t gonna happen.